THE CONTROVERSIAL ELECTION OF 1824 MAY PROVIDE A BLUEPRINT. IN THIS CONTEST, ANDREW JACKSON CRIED FOUL, AS HE WON A PLURALITY OF ELECTORAL VOTES AND POPULAR VOTES (OVER 40%) BUT FELL SHORT OF THE REQUIRED ELECTORAL VOTE MAJORITY. WHAT WENT WRONG FOR JACKSON? THE PROBLEM WAS SIMPLE. THERE WERE FOUR VIABLE CANDIDATES PARTICIPATING, AND THIS WORKED TO SIPHON OFF JUST ENOUGH ELECTORAL SUPPORT TO DENY THE WIN FOR OLD HICKORY. AS A RESULT, AS PER THE DICTATES OF THE 12TH AMENDMENT, THE WINNER WAS DECIDED IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, WHICH VOTED TO ALLOCATE ELECTORS TO THE TOP THREE FINISHERS. IN WHAT WOULD BE CALLED A “CORRUPT BARGAIN”, CLAY THREW CRITICAL SUPPORT TO ADAMS, WHO WAS VOTED THE WINNER IN THE HOUSE, IN EXCHANGE FOR BEING NAMED AS ADAMS’ SECRETARY OF STATE.

SUCH A SCENARIO COULD WELL PLAY OUT SIMILARLY IN 2020, IF BLOOMBERG OR SANDERS LOSE THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION TO BIDEN AND DECIDE TO NEVERTHELESS COMPETE IN THE MAIN ELECTION AS A THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE. ALL THAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IS FOR THE THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE TO WIN ENOUGH ELECTORAL VOTES SO AS TO DENY TRUMP THE NECESSARY 270. IF THAT HAPPENS, THE ELECTION GETS THROWN TO THE HOUSE, WHERE THE DEMOCRATS WOULD BE MORE THAN WELL EQUIPPED TO STRUCTURE THEIR OWN BARGAIN IN FAVOR TO BLOCK TRUMP AND NOMINATE THEIR OWN (OR THE THIRD PARTY) CANDIDATE. THIS WOULD INDEED BE AN IRONIC TWIST, GIVEN THE WAY THE REPUBLICANS WERE VERY RECENTLY ABLE TO RELY ON THEIR CONTROL OF THE OTHER HOUSE OF CONGRESS IN PROTECTING TRUMP FROM REMOVAL.

GIVEN THE PRESIDENT’S STRONG, BUT RELATIVELY NARROW BASE OF VOTER SUPPORT, THIS STRATEGY, RATHER THAN THE STANDARD ONE INVOLVING AN ATTEMPT TO UNITE THE BLOOMBERG/BERNIE/BIDEN SUPPORT BEHIND A SINGLE NOMINEE, MAY WELL WORK BEST FOR THE FORCES WHOSE PRIMARY GOES IS DEFEATING TRUMP. IT MAY NOT BE WHAT THE DNC WANTS TO HEAR, BUT IT COULD BE THEIR BEST BET.