DFS Week 1: By the Numbers

Six-Pack of Interesting DFS Facts

  • Not counting the out-of-this-world season that Patrick Mahomes had last season, only 4.9 DK points separated the number two quarterback (Matt Ryan) and his 24.4 average and the number 16 quarterback, Russell Wilson and his 19.5 average. 
  • In the last six games of last season, only Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, and Ezekiel Elliott averaged more fantasy points than Josh Allen. The Bills rookie quarterback averaged an astounding 79.3 rushing yards per game during the last six games.
  • Even though there are a lot of good cheap value plays at Tight End this week, if you are wanting to win a million dollars on DK, you will only want to play one of them. According to Adam Levitan, only two of the past 45 Milly Maker lineups on DK used a Tight End in the Flex position. Running Back was used 25 times with a Wide Receiver occupying that spot 18 of the 45 winning lineups.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defense gave up 117 catches to the Running Back position last year, which was seven more than Philadelphia and Indianapolis. This was also the third such year that the Falcons gave up the most RB catches. This especially bodes well for Dalvin Cook, who looks to be under-priced and doesn’t have to worry about splitting carries with Latavius Murray. Additionally, Chris Thompson (especially playing from behind against the Eagles), and Austin Ekeler (or even Justin Jackson with Melvin Gordon sitting out but I like Ekeler’s pass-catching abilities) are interesting based on Philly and Indy giving up almost as many RB receptions as Atlanta.
  • Andrew Luck’s retirement caused the Colts projected Vegas season total to plummet from 9.5 to 6 wins. Less wins could spell doom for Marlon Mack. According to Scott Barrett from Pro Football Focus, 70% of Mack’s fantasy points last year came in Colts games in which they won by at least 14 point. He was barely a top-50 RB on the year in the games that the Colts won by less than two touchdowns.
  • Bruce Arians is the new Tampa Bay head coach. Each of the last four teams he has taken over, either as an OC or a HC has seen an increase in wins and scoring in that first season. On average, the four teams have won five more games and scored 6.4 more points in Arians’ first year. In addition to a track record of success, he is known for airing it out and throwing the ball down the field. According to ESPN’s Matthew Berry, the Bucs QB Jameis Winston would have led the NFL in deep ball completions and attempts per game if he had met the NFL’s minimum qualifications for games played.

For Full Post, Daily Fantasy Sports analysis and lineup optimization visit couchpotatogm.com.

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